A Methodological Framework for Parametric Combat Analysis

This work presents a taxonomic structure for understanding the tension between certain factors of stability for game-theoretic outcomes such as Nash optimality, Pareto optimality, and balance optimality and then applies such game-theoretic concepts to the advancement of strategic thought on spacepower. This work successfully adapts and applies combat modeling theory to the evaluation of cislunar space conflict. This work provides evidence that the reliability characteristics of small spacecraft share similarities to the reliability characteristics of large spacecraft. Using these novel foundational concepts, this dissertation develops and presents a parametric methodological framework capable of analyzing the efficacy of heterogeneous force compositions in the context of space warfare. This framework is shown to be capable of predicting a stochastic distribution of numerical outcomes associated with various modes of conflict and parameter values. Furthermore, this work demonstrates a general alignment in results between the game-theoretic concepts of the framework and Media Interaction Warfare Theory in terms of evaluating force efficacy, providing strong evidence for the validity of the methodological framework presented in this dissertation

Survival Analysis for Nanosatellites and Picosatellites

The nascent field of fractionated satellite architectures provides an opportunity to improve spacecraft modularity and afford greater flexibility, adaptability, and upgradeability to spacecraft constellations. Satellite modules within a coherent formation can be replaced without facing the challenges of manufacturing, assembly, or disassembly in the harsh space environment (e.g., satellite modules conducting electromagnetic formation flight (EMFF) are not physically connected such that one module may be replaced with potentially less risk of damaging or degrading the performance of the other modules). Conventionally, the depot for constellation replenishment is located on Earth, however, minor augmentations to spacecraft formations cannot be conducted economically under such a framework. The present research proposes the utilization of proactively launched supply depots to replenish geostationary formations from ultrageostationary orbit (i.e., that volume of space encompassed between the altitude of geostationary orbit and the altitude of the L1 Lagrange point). This work explores reliability factors associated with such a concept by conducting a survival analysis for nanosatellites and picosatellites. Time to failure data is collected for 85 spacecraft in the nano- (1.01 – 10 kg wet mass) and pico- (0.11 – 1 kg wet mass) classes without data censoring. These spacecraft were launched between 2010 and 2019, inclusive, having an internationally diverse set of owners from the sectors of military, government, commercial, and academia. This data is used to build a distribution for the survival analysis of satellites in these classes. JMP Pro 13 is used to conduct a goodness-of-fit test for multiple distributions. Analysis (using a standard alpha value of 0.05) indicates that the data is from a two-parameter Weibull distribution wherein the spacecraft experience beneficial aging

Tradespace Investigation of a Telescope Architecture for Next-generation Space Astronomy and Exploration

Humanity’s endeavor to further its scientific understanding of the celestial heavens has led to the creation and evolution of increasingly powerful and complex space telescopes. Space telescopes provide a view of the solar system, galaxy, and universe unobstructed by Earth’s atmosphere and have profoundly changed the way people view space. In an effort to further advance space telescope capability and achieve the accompanying scientific understanding, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), specifically, course 16.89 Space Systems Engineering, explored the tradespace of architectural enumerations encompassed within the design of an ultraviolet-optical-infrared (UVOIR) space telescope located at Sun-Earth Lagrangian Point Two (SE-L2). SE-L2 presents several advantages as an operating location for a UVOIR telescope such as a thermally stable environment and an orbit that allows the telescope to maintain a constant orientation with respect to all of the primary sources of heat and light. The main disadvantages associated with SE-L2 are caused by its relatively large distance from Earth, which marginalizes the effectiveness of real-time telerobotics because of latency and increases the cost of communications, launch, and servicing. Course 16.89 believes that, for this UVOIR application, the strengths of this operating location outweigh its weaknesses and therefore decided to explore the family of opportunities associated with SE-L2. This course used appropriate performance and system metrics to quantify the effectiveness of the aforementioned architectures and create a Pareto front of viable architectures. Evaluating the designs along the Pareto front allowed the course to characterize and group architectures and present these group-types to stakeholders for the selection of an optimal space telescope according to stakeholder requirements and resources. This course also developed sensitivity analysis, which allowed for a greater understanding of how architectural decisions affect the performance of the satellite. Segmentation, modularity, assembly, autonomy, and servicing were key aspects of this multidimensional analysis given the 16.8-meter class size and location of the telescope. Within the respective operating environment and for a spacecraft of similar characteristics, this model will allow stakeholders to predict the long-term operational effectiveness of different space telescope architectures and capture the synergistic effects of combining various architectural decisions into a spacecraft design. The following sections step through the aforesaid analysis and design efforts conducted in 16.89 beginning with Section III, which explicitly performs the stakeholder analysis and articulates the requirements of the mission. Section IV gives an overview of past designs and expands upon the architecture enumerations pertinent to this project, while Section V presents the methods and metrics by which those architectures will be evaluated and the system metrics which will be balanced and optimized in the creation of this space telescope. Section VI will present the model validation of this project and Section VII will discuss the results and analyses of the project. Finally, Section VIII will explore the future work opportunities of this project, while Section IX will present the conclusions and recommendations drawn from this project.MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautic

Development and Implementation of the SPHERES-Slosh Experiment

Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. "June 2014." "This material is declared a work of the United States Government and is not subject to copyright protection in the United States."Includes bibliographical references (pages 101-102).Understanding fluid slosh in a microgravity environment has the potential to make liquid-fueled spacecraft more effective. The SPHERES-Slosh Experiment gathers benchmarking data that can be used to validate computational fluid dynamics models for microgravity environments. This thesis discusses the design of the SSE hardware and the control theory used on the International Space Station during test sessions. This thesis proposes future control theory and design work.by Dustin Luke Hayhurst.S.M